Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?

This market shows extremely lopsided risk dynamics, with the "No" side offering a 1333.9% implied yield versus just 24.8% for "Yes," despite the Republican outcome being priced at 88%. The zero 24-hour volume and $16k open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the November 2026 election approaches, particularly given the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7. The stable price movement from 87¢ to 88¢ over seven days indicates the market has settled into a strong consensus on Republican dominance in this Texas district, though the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about potential mispricing or structural imbalances in the contract design.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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