Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite being 136 days from expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 42¢ spread that creates an 805% implied yield on the "Yes" side—a red flag suggesting the bid-ask gap reflects genuine uncertainty rather than efficient pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite being 136 days from expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 42¢ spread that creates an 805% implied yield on the "Yes" side—a red flag suggesting the bid-ask gap reflects genuine uncertainty rather than efficient pricing. The 7-day price collapse from 37¢ to 24¢ combined with 750% realized volatility and a 2.94 vol ratio indicates sharp recent selling pressure, though the modest $1,296.76 open interest means even small trades could move prices dramatically. With a neutral regime score and 1.7 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the 24¢ price may not reflect true probability given the illiquidity constraints.
Resolution rules
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x23e782e8db3eb990b48ff37432f9f0899e73ea737e68d2934bd09b34934dc0d0 yes 100