Will the Democratic Party win the IL-09 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic probability at 93¢ with minimal recent trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the price may be stale despite 200 days to expiration. The massive 2425% implied yield on the "No" outcome is a classic sign of illiquidity at the extremes—the thin $19,905 open interest cannot support meaningful contrarian positions. With a tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the Democratic lean reflects IL-09's historical lean rather than active price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade