Will the Republican Party win the CA-29 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $20.5M open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and potentially trapped. The 7¢ price implies only a 7% Republican win probability in this heavily Democratic district, yet the asymmetric implied yields (2,425% for Yes vs. 13.7% for No) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 indicate significant tail risk or potential mispricing. With 200 days to expiry and a 1¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative long position on a low-probability outcome rather than an actively traded market reflecting current consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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