What is the current probability for "Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2258.8% and 9.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Dan Clancy's continued tenure as Twitch CEO is priced at an extremely low 3¢, implying just a 3% probability of his departure before end-2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 4,561.7% implied yield reflecting severe illiquidity with only $9,825 open interest.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 3/8¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $2,509.728·OI $6,350.559·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x277a3ae83692e2242b1ccf6c345646908075a1e94ff7151359aeaf8c9495cbc4

7-day price176 snapshots · 17 regime

13¢5¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

Dan Clancy's continued tenure as Twitch CEO is priced at an extremely low 3¢, implying just a 3% probability of his departure before end-2026, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 4,561.7% implied yield reflecting severe illiquidity with only $9,825 open interest. The market has crashed dramatically from 13¢ seven days ago—a 77% decline—suggesting either new information stabilizing Clancy's position or a liquidity event, though the 2¢ spread and $440k daily volume indicate thin trading that may not reflect true consensus. With 259 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a contrarian bet with extreme payoff asymmetry rather than a liquid probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2258.8%

IY (No) 9.2%

Adj IY 1129%

CRI 16

RV 2058%

VR 4.44

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2258.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1129%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2058%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.44	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.50	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:20:40 PM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x277a3ae83692e2242b1ccf6c345646908075a1e94ff7151359aeaf8c9495cbc4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →