Will the Republican Party win the CA-10 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with Republicans priced at just 8¢ despite CA-10 being a historically competitive district, generating an extraordinary 2098.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 15.9% on the No side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $20.9M open interest suggests the market is illiquid and potentially mispriced, with the tight 1¢ spread masking deeper liquidity concerns. With 200 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, this appears to be a contrarian opportunity if Republicans have genuine viability in this district, though the lack of recent trading activity warrants caution about execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade