Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing January 4, 2027. The Bears' division odds have collapsed 40% over the past week (from 20¢ to 12¢), now pricing them at just 14% to win the NFC North despite 263 days until resolution and $38.5K open interest.
Analysis
The Bears' division odds have collapsed 40% over the past week (from 20¢ to 12¢), now pricing them at just 14% to win the NFC North despite 263 days until resolution and $38.5K open interest. The extreme 556% implied yield on the yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 16¢ spread suggests this is a stale, illiquid market where the sharp recent price movement may reflect limited trading rather than fundamental conviction. The 1283% realized volatility and 4.95 vol ratio indicate significant pricing instability, warranting caution on the reliability of the current 14¢ quote.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the NFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x27f0a7e03f8e4afc417f74ed532c6216c431ecec27b2a136b5b894007dd46dc6 yes 100