Pro Football: NFC North Champion
Leader sits at 35% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
NFC North Champion: Green Ba
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$134
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
210 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pro Football: NFC North Champion
Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Minnesota Vikings
0xd90ebe…07cf
Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers
0xa8deed…8b45
Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Detroit Lions
0x4f9a05…e0cb
Pro Football: NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears
0x27f0a7…6dc6
Analysis
This 33% probability indicates that betting markets estimate roughly one-in-three odds that the team currently leading contract prices will win the NFC North division championship. The leading contract is trading higher than its nearest competitor (30%), reflecting market perception of relative strength among the four division teams. Movement in this probability will primarily depend on team performance during the regular season, injury developments, and playoff qualification dynamics. The division championship will be determined by final standings at the end of the 2026 NFL regular season, with the winner confirmed in early 2027 when playoff seeding is finalized.
- ›The top-priced contract (Detroit at 33%) trades at a significant premium to teams priced at 8-9 cents, suggesting differentiation in perceived championship likelihood rather than evenly-matched competition.
- ›Trading volume concentrated in Detroit and Chicago contracts ($5,609 and $5,435 in 24h volume respectively) indicates these two teams command substantially more market attention than Minnesota or Washington.
- ›The contract distribution (33%, 30%, 9%, 8%, 3%) reflects division hierarchy, with the bottom three teams combined at 20%, suggesting the market assigns most probability mass to two primary contenders.
- ›Contract pricing at 3-9 cents rather than higher levels suggests meaningful uncertainty remains—no single outcome is heavily favored despite the leader's relative advantage.
- ›Regular season performance from September 2026 forward will be the primary driver of probability shifts, with win-loss records determining playoff positioning and division champion qualification.
What moved the line
- Jun 3NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers↑8pp31→39¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 8NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers↓8pp37→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears↑5pp19→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears↑5pp25→30¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 8NFC North Champion: Chicago Bears↓5pp32→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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