Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Polymarket, closing June 10, 2026. SGA's MVP odds are priced at an extreme 95¢, implying a 95% win probability with only 54 days to resolution, yet the massive 12,861% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on the downside.
Analysis
SGA's MVP odds are priced at an extreme 95¢, implying a 95% win probability with only 54 days to resolution, yet the massive 12,861% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on the downside. The $29.9k daily volume against $38.5k open interest, combined with a realized volatility of 90% and a 1.51 vol ratio, suggests this market lacks depth despite the tight 0¢ spread, making the extreme pricing potentially unreliable. With an information arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, late-season MVP voting dynamics could dramatically shift these odds before the June 2026 close.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x281565cae359040475640be8bc20f4efe15245fe0251805fd338fb1a3e45ffae yes 100