Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability of NASDAQ listing at 95¢, reflecting strong consensus that SpaceX will choose this venue if it goes public, though the $939 daily volume is notably thin for such a high-conviction trade. The 2¢ spread is tight relative to the price, but the modest $22.7k open interest suggests limited capital committed despite the apparent certainty, which could indicate either genuine consensus or insufficient market depth to test conviction at scale. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19, there's meaningful tail risk embedded—likely reflecting uncertainty around whether SpaceX IPOs at all or timing, making this less of a pure venue-selection bet than the price suggests.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the exchange on which SpaceX’s shares first begin public trading as part of its initial public offering (IPO). The exchange will be determined based on the primary listing venue where SpaceX’s shares are initially listed and begin regular-way trading following its IPO. If SpaceX lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously, the exchange designated as the primary listing venue by the company or in official exchange materials will be used for resolution. If SpaceX lists primarily on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or the New York Stock Exchange or if it does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Announcements, reports, or indications of intended listing venue prior to the IPO will not be considered. The market will resolve based on the actual listing at the time trading begins. The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX or the relevant exchange; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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