What is the current probability for "Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.7% and 44.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 18/29¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $11,186.635·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x287d484fd3526634230240be0f1960745018f742e4dae6b4a5bb1bb787d32ad9

7-day price270 snapshots · 6 regime

57¢23¢ current

Apr 2313¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.7%

IY (No) 44.5%

Adj IY 499%

CRI 3

RV 1984%

VR 13.43

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	499%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1984%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	13.43	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 11:44:32 PM

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 11:39:00 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x287d484fd3526634230240be0f1960745018f742e4dae6b4a5bb1bb787d32ad9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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