Will there be between 100m and 105m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

The 6¢ price implies only a 6% probability that House midterm turnout lands in the narrow 100-105m vote band, despite this range representing a plausible outcome given 2022's 116m votes and 2018's 113m votes. The extreme 2849.5% implied yield on "Yes" combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and modest open interest ($4,391.98) suggests this is a low-liquidity niche contract where the pricing may not reflect fundamental election forecasting. The 40% price decline over seven days (10¢ to 6¢) and elevated realized volatility of 819% indicate either recent information arrival or thin-market price swings rather than genuine probability shifts, warranting caution before treating this as a reliable forecast.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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