Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket.

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24¢
Bid/Ask 23/25¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $47.695·OI $25,175.082·195d remaining
0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48
7-day price62 snapshots · 8 regime
26¢24¢ current
Apr 822¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 592.3%
IY (No) 59.1%
Adj IY 296%
CRI 3
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)592.3%
IY (No)59.1%
Adj IY296%
CRI3

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:25:26 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 yes 100

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