Will the Republican Party win the NY-16 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 6¢ despite NY-16 being a competitive district, generating an extraordinary 2,850% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 11.6% on the No side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $45,877 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity is trapping capital at these distorted prices rather than reflecting genuine conviction about Republican prospects. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 16, this represents a potential arbitrage opportunity if market participants eventually correct the pricing toward fundamentals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade