Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

The market is pricing in a 71% probability of critical-minerals stockpile legislation passing by end-2026, but the extreme 46¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity despite $87k open interest. The "No" side offers a striking 345.5% implied yield versus just 57.6% for "Yes," indicating asymmetric risk compensation that may reflect either deep skepticism among active traders or a liquidity desert where the 71¢ price is stale—notably, the market has rallied 14 cents over seven days with only 1.9 information arrivals per hour, suggesting the move may be driven by thin trading rather than fundamental developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes H.R. 7126 (119th) — “To establish a Strategic Resilience Reserve of the United States…” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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