Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

The Taqaddom Party contract is pricing in a 6% win probability despite extreme volatility (1800% realized) and an unusually asymmetric implied yield structure where "Yes" holders face 13,010% annualized returns against just 53% for "No" holders, suggesting deep uncertainty about the party's viability. With only $120K in 24-hour volume against $15M open interest and an 8¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to positions, creating potential slippage risk in the final 44 days before the May 2026 Lebanese parliamentary elections. The price has doubled from 3¢ to 6¢ over seven days with a 3.33 volatility ratio and 1.9 information arrivals per hour, indicating active repricing, though the high cliff risk index (16) suggests resolution uncertainty may persist beyond the October 31 deadline.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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