Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing CA-28 at just 11¢, implying an 11% win probability, yet shows an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1476.5% for YES positions—a stark asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme conviction among Democratic backers. With only $12.6K in 24-hour volume against $14.2M open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to the outsized open interest, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled into a stable equilibrium, though the high cliff risk index of 8 warrants caution given the 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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