Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $12.6k open interest, and the 5¢ spread suggests thin order books on both sides.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $12.6k open interest, and the 5¢ spread suggests thin order books on both sides. The 2308% implied yield on "Yes" is a red flag indicating the 12¢ price likely reflects minimal trading rather than genuine probability assessment, especially given the neutral regime and high realized volatility of 2180%. With 116 days to the August 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this appears to be a speculative position with limited market depth rather than an efficiently priced contract.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x2e6cabf7962e7a826926f15a86f53c4355284b7007e0d8b74dc5654e938db465 yes 100