Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $7,202, with zero 24-hour volume and a realized volatility of 7,095% indicating wild price swings—the contract has dropped from 4¢ to 11¢ over seven days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $7,202, with zero 24-hour volume and a realized volatility of 7,095% indicating wild price swings—the contract has dropped from 4¢ to 11¢ over seven days. The 1,472% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 suggests this is a highly speculative, low-confidence market where the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine probability assessment. With 201 days until expiry and an information arrival rate of only 0.7 per hour, this appears to be a niche nomination race with minimal market attention and significant uncertainty around Schwarze's actual candidacy prospects.
Also on polymarket at 10¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If Adam Schwarze wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMNR-26-ASCH yes 100