Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?

The Republican contract at 83¢ reflects strong confidence in GOP retention of Wisconsin's 6th district, though the extreme 888% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity on the Democratic side—typical for heavily favored outcomes on prediction markets. With only $543 in 24-hour volume against $21.4k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to the position size, creating potential slippage for larger traders. The 94% realized volatility and 5/10 cliff risk index suggest this market has experienced sharp moves despite the seemingly settled 83¢ price, warranting caution on the stability of the current consensus with 201 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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