Will the Democratic Party win the GA-07 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing GA-07 at just 14¢, implying only a 14% win probability in what is traditionally a Republican-leaning district, yet the asymmetric implied yield of 1121% for Yes contracts versus 29.7% for No suggests significant mispricing or extreme confidence in Republican retention. With only $318.74 in 24-hour volume against $15.2M open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and vulnerability to sharp repricing if new polling emerges. The modest 1¢ spread and neutral regime score mask the elevated 6 Cliff Risk Index, indicating this market could experience sudden volatility closer to the November 2026 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade