Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The market is pricing in a 92% probability that crude oil settles above $60 by June 2026, reflecting strong conviction in oil remaining well above this threshold over the next 74 days. However, the extreme 5,671% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns, with only $7.6k in open interest and a 7¢ spread suggesting thin market depth. The 2-cent price movement from 90¢ to 92¢ over seven days combined with the modest $19.41 daily volume indicates low trading activity, making this contract vulnerable to sharp repricing on any significant oil price movement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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