Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 82¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting limited liquidity despite $11.7M open interest. The extreme 828.7% implied yield on the "No" side is a red flag indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity on the bearish side, with a 5/10 cliff risk index suggesting potential resolution uncertainty. The modest 3¢ price appreciation over seven days and 201 days to expiry suggest this is a relatively stable market awaiting more information as the 2026 election cycle develops.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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