Will the Republican Party win the VA-04 House seat?

This market shows extremely asymmetric risk with a 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side against just 13.7% on the No side, suggesting the 7¢ price may significantly undervalue Republican chances in VA-04 despite the seat's Democratic lean. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $37,732 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity that could exacerbate mispricing, while the recent price decline from 8¢ to 7¢ over seven days may reflect either genuine shifting fundamentals or thin-market volatility. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this market has sufficient time for price discovery but currently appears to be pricing in an unusually low Republican probability that contrasts with the substantial yield differential.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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