Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1117.4% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in TX-04, though the zero 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this price reflects actual market consensus or stale liquidity. The $22.8M open interest is substantial, but the tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate the market may be illiquid despite the large OI, potentially trapping positions. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a mispriced contrarian opportunity, though traders should verify whether TX-04's fundamentals (historically Republican-leaning) justify the extreme yield differential before committing capital.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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