Iran leadership change by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Iran leadership change by December 31?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced significant bearish pressure over the past week, declining 28% from 43¢ to 31¢, suggesting reduced conviction in near-term Iranian leadership transition despite the 259-day timeframe remaining.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish pressure over the past week, declining 28% from 43¢ to 31¢, suggesting reduced conviction in near-term Iranian leadership transition despite the 259-day timeframe remaining. The 314% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects substantial tail-risk premium, though the 2¢ spread and $27.8k daily volume indicate moderate liquidity for a geopolitical event contract. The elevated realized volatility of 219% and info arrival rate of 0.5/hour suggest this market is actively responding to Iran-related developments, though the neutral regime score (0.409) indicates no clear directional momentum currently.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607 yes 100