Will the Democratic Party win the FL-05 House seat?

This FL-05 Democratic market is pricing in an extremely low 11% win probability with a striking 1,476% annualized yield on the Yes side, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $13.8K open interest suggest minimal liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The 659% realized volatility and 8/10 cliff risk index indicate this market has experienced severe swings, likely driven by sparse information arrival (0.6 events/hour), making the current price potentially unreliable for a race with 200 days until resolution. The 2¢ spread and recent 1¢ price decline offer limited conviction signals given the illiquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade