Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

The market has experienced extreme volatility, surging 59 cents over seven days to reach 93¢, reflecting either new information about Orbán's political vulnerability or a significant shift in trader sentiment toward his departure before end-2026. The asymmetric implied yields—10.6% for Yes versus 1874% for No—combined with a realized volatility of 389% and high volume relative to open interest ($6.4M daily on $33.9M OI) suggest active disagreement about tail-risk scenarios, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates efficient pricing at this extreme probability level. With 259 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 13, this market appears to be pricing in either imminent political instability in Hungary or a specific near-term catalyst that traders expect could force Orbán's removal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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