Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The market is pricing in a 92% probability that crude oil settles above $52 by June 30, 2026, but the extreme 5674% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—this asymmetry suggests either the floor is artificially low or traders are heavily skewed toward the bullish outcome. With zero 24-hour volume and only $1.13M open interest despite a 4¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin, making the 92¢ price potentially unreliable; the recent 4¢ decline from 96¢ over seven days may reflect profit-taking rather than fundamental repricing. The $52 threshold appears extremely conservative given crude's historical range, which likely explains the lopsided probability, but the lack of trading activity and high cliff risk index (12) suggest this market may not be efficiently discovering price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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