Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2027. The 17¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about OpenAI reaching a $1–$1.25T valuation on IPO day, despite the extraordinarily high 286% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium.
Analysis
The 17¢ price reflects substantial skepticism about OpenAI reaching a $1–$1.25T valuation on IPO day, despite the extraordinarily high 286% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium. With zero 24-hour volume against $4.5M open interest and a 21¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the extreme yield potentially illusory—the market may simply lack sufficient trading activity to establish a reliable price. The 1,798% realized volatility and 10.86 vol ratio indicate this is an exceptionally noisy market where the resolution hinges on both IPO timing and valuation precision over 624 days, creating substantial cliff risk (score of 5).
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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sf trade 0x3d876fb6a2136d8aeabb3f6b3c5129af020b8bf3139175c27e94d3c11cfad8c3 yes 100