Will the Democratic Party win the TX-13 House seat?

The Democratic contract on TX-13 is pricing in just an 8% win probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,091.8% for YES positions, suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical Democratic performance in this district or significant risk aversion among traders. The market shows minimal liquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $32.6M open interest, indicating the last trade occurred well before today, and the recent price decline from 9¢ to 8¢ over seven days suggests modest bearish momentum. With 201 days until resolution and a notable cliff risk index of 12, this contract carries substantial tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions aren't extreme.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade