Will the Republican Party win the CA-48 House seat?

This CA-48 Republican contract shows extreme asymmetry with a 1121% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 29.7% on the No side, suggesting deeply mispriced risk or very thin liquidity despite $10.8M open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 14¢ price reflects a heavily Democratic-favored district, though the modest 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate the market isn't panicked despite the high cliff risk index of 6. With 200 days to expiration, the lack of recent price movement (13¢ to 14¢ over seven days) and zero volume suggest this contract may be illiquid or held by long-term position holders awaiting clearer 2026 campaign signals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade