Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?

The market is pricing a 34% probability for this $70-80B raise band, down 3 cents over 7 days, suggesting declining confidence in this specific valuation range as SpaceX IPO speculation evolves. Liquidity is thin with only $693 in 24-hour volume against $4.8K open interest, creating execution challenges for meaningful position sizing. The 3-cent spread and low Cliff Risk Index (2) indicate relatively stable pricing mechanics despite the illiquid conditions, though traders should expect slippage on larger orders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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