Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

The market is pricing in only a 12% chance of WTI crude hitting $60 or lower by end-June 2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 3,616% implied yield for "Yes" positions—a classic lottery-like setup that suggests either deep skepticism about downside risk or potential mispricing given crude's 860% realized volatility. The sharp 5-cent price decline over seven days combined with a 1.38 volatility ratio and elevated information arrival rate (0.8/hour) indicates recent bearish momentum, though the $28.8M open interest and modest $519K daily volume raise liquidity concerns for position sizing. With 74 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be underweighting tail risk; current crude prices would need to drop roughly 30-40% from typical 2026 levels to trigger resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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