Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The 93¢ price reflects an extremely bullish consensus with 93% implied probability that crude will exceed $55 by late June 2026, yet the market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,202.63 open interest, making this pricing potentially unreliable. The massive 6557% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—such extreme asymmetry typically indicates thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, especially given the 11¢ spread on a 74-day contract. With crude's historical volatility and the modest $55 threshold (well below current levels), the market's extreme confidence warrants skepticism; the zero volume suggests this may be a stale or illiquid quote rather than an actively traded position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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