Will the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2859.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 11.7% on the No side, suggesting the 6¢ price significantly undervalues Republican chances in CO-02 relative to market consensus on the No outcome. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,674 open interest and a perfect 0¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the high yield, making this a thin market where large positions could face execution challenges. With 200 days to expiry and a notable 50% price increase over seven days (4¢ to 6¢), the market appears to be repricing, though the elevated cliff risk index of 16 suggests elevated tail risk around the resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade