Will the Republican Party win the OR-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $31k open interest, suggesting the 91¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to significant repricing. The asymmetric implied yields—18% for Yes versus 1,839% for No—indicate the market is pricing in an overwhelming Republican advantage in OR-02, though the massive No yield suggests minimal liquidity on the short side. With 201 days to expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a low-activity market where the high probability reflects limited trading rather than deep conviction, warranting caution before treating the price as definitive.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade