Will Greg Plucinski be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Greg Plucinski be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Greg Plucinski is priced at a severe discount with only 5% implied probability despite the market closing just 32 days before the May 19, 2026 primary, suggesting either strong consensus against his nomination or potential mispricing given the thin $111.21 daily volume.
Analysis
Greg Plucinski is priced at a severe discount with only 5% implied probability despite the market closing just 32 days before the May 19, 2026 primary, suggesting either strong consensus against his nomination or potential mispricing given the thin $111.21 daily volume. The astronomical 21,690% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution indicates extreme illiquidity and a wide 3¢ spread, making this market highly susceptible to manipulation or sharp repricing if new information emerges about the race. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19 and only $10,248.97 in open interest, this is a low-confidence market where small trades could move the price meaningfully in the final month before resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x46b782a18426ab82d96e9c852a2b6bff770d8f243c2424b5ed03de769e13f9fb yes 100