Will the Republican Party win the WA-06 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing at an extreme 7¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,416.7%, suggesting the market assigns only a 7% win probability for Republicans in this heavily Democratic district. Despite the compelling 2,416.7% yield on the Yes side, the zero 24-hour volume and $32,881 open interest indicate minimal liquidity and conviction, raising questions about whether this price reflects genuine market consensus or illiquidity-driven mispricing. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-activity market where the extreme yield may not be actionable given the thin trading conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade