Will the Republican Party win the NC-02 House seat?

This market is pricing Republicans at just 8¢ for NC-02, implying an 8% win probability, yet shows an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2098.6% on the Yes side—a stark disconnect suggesting severe illiquidity with only $20,378 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1¢ spread and stagnant price over seven days indicate this is a dead market with minimal trading activity, making the yield figure more of a theoretical artifact than a meaningful opportunity given the practical difficulty of executing at these prices. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market lacks conviction, and traders should be cautious about the reliability of any pricing signal here.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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