Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?
0x4e99f6a90d91428c77816ca5884607b744420904cff1df30d5633c6f5eae5108 · closes Apr 30, 2026 · 14 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Vegas Golden Knights win the NHL Pacific Division? · match confidence 0.75 · close-time delta 38h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 592.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 10758.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1786% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 5.45 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 10759% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
315 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the listed division during the 2025-26 NHL regular season. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win its division (e.g., mathematical elimination before season end), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.” If the 2025-26 NHL season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x4e99f6a90d91428c77816ca5884607b744420904cff1df30d5633c6f5eae5108 yes 100