Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan out as President of the United Arab Emirates by December 31, 2026?

The 12¢ price reflects extremely low removal probability for the UAE's president over the next 259 days, yet the Yes side carries an outsized 1034% annualized yield, creating a classic tail-risk arbitrage opportunity for those betting on political upheaval. Volume of $1.44M against $12M open interest suggests moderate liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread, though the recent 20% price appreciation (10¢ to 12¢) over seven days warrants monitoring for whether this reflects genuine new information or speculative positioning ahead of the late-2026 expiry. The 7/10 cliff risk index and 517% risk-adjusted yield indicate meaningful tail event premium, typical for low-probability geopolitical markets with binary outcomes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan ceases to be President of the United Arab Emirates for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and the government of the United Arab Emirates; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade