What is the current probability for "Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 509.2% and 40.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 20/24¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $101.82·OI $2,112.621·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0x51c5e348aef1652d6ad226364563b281f441c516dbc851ebfca20ed74f7e590d

7-day price550 snapshots · 6 regime

23¢22¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pacifica, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 509.2%

IY (No) 40.5%

Adj IY 509%

CRI 4

RV 1594%

VR 5.75

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	509.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	40.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	509%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1594%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.75	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:20:04 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x51c5e348aef1652d6ad226364563b281f441c516dbc851ebfca20ed74f7e590d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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