What is the current probability for "Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 964.9% and 21.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 13¢ price implies an extremely low probability of Jassy's departure, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 947% annualized yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for a relatively stable executive with 258 days to expiry.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 11/14¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $2,007.696·OI $9,129.746·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x52f69f432e4962ec580f020c68d9bcae62db97cdf64b7d9c28ba01f9025b22f3

7-day price258 snapshots · 12 regime

14¢13¢ current

Apr 811¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 13¢ price implies an extremely low probability of Jassy's departure, yet the Yes side offers an exceptional 947% annualized yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for a relatively stable executive with 258 days to expiry. Volume is thin at just $36.84 in 24 hours against $10.2M open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges. The modest 7-day price uptick from 12¢ to 13¢ and neutral regime score suggest the market is pricing this as a low-probability event with minimal recent catalyst activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 964.9%

IY (No) 21.5%

Adj IY 742%

CRI 7

RV 769%

VR 2.32

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	964.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	742%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	769%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.23	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:20:09 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x52f69f432e4962ec580f020c68d9bcae62db97cdf64b7d9c28ba01f9025b22f3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →