Will the Republican Party win the IL-12 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Republican lean in IL-12, pricing in a 92% GOP win probability with minimal recent price movement despite 200 days to the 2026 election. The asymmetric implied yields (15.9% for Yes vs. 2099.6% for No) reveal severe liquidity imbalance—the $19.3K open interest on a heavily one-sided contract suggests few traders are willing to bet against Republican dominance in this district. The 1¢ spread and modest $130 daily volume indicate thin trading, so any significant political shift could trigger sharp repricing, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions are stable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade