Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 382.6% implied yield on "Yes" against just 52.3% on "No," suggesting significant underpricing of repeal odds relative to the binary risk, though zero 24-hour volume raises liquidity concerns for actually executing trades at the 27¢ quote. The 351% realized volatility and 1.87 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative position with substantial price swings, while the neutral regime and modest 0.4 info arrivals per hour suggest the market lacks conviction and may be waiting for legislative signals before the 258-day expiry. With $10.5M open interest but no recent trading activity, this appears to be a positioning market where the extreme yield differential may reflect either genuine mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than true probability discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Regime

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