Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1600.00 and 1699.99 at the end of December 2026?
0x6d08b8be8ba554142cc38bda6193b137299c79bf19f9080b0044ac52f8ae7604 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 261 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 494.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3015% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 10.77 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 5.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 495% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
400 indicator snapshots · 0 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x6d08b8be8ba554142cc38bda6193b137299c79bf19f9080b0044ac52f8ae7604 yes 100