Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite $7.8M open interest, suggesting the 22¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 10,584% implied yield on the Yes side. With only 13 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market faces acute resolution risk, though the neutral regime and modest 1¢ weekly price decline suggest limited recent conviction in either direction. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (1,853%) and information arrival rate (3.7/hour) indicate this is a highly reactive market where legislative activity in early April could dramatically reprrice positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade