Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

The market has experienced a sharp 36% price decline over seven days (from 70¢ to 45¢), suggesting recent negative sentiment toward a Claude 5 release within the 74-day window, though the 45% implied probability still reflects meaningful uncertainty. The extreme implied yield of 603% on "Yes" positions reflects the short timeframe and binary nature, but notably low 24-hour volume of $1,901 relative to $17.4M open interest indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on modest order flow. With 175% realized volatility and an info arrival rate of 0.5 per hour, this market remains highly sensitive to Anthropic announcements or competitive AI release news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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