Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 1145% annualized yield on the Yes side despite only 11¢ pricing, yet zero 24-hour volume and just $1.8M open interest suggest severe illiquidity is preventing arbitrage. The 3¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the sharp 21% decline over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicates heightened uncertainty around resolution criteria or geopolitical catalysts. With 258 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.4 events per hour, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a genuine probability assessment, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if Trump's 2026 travel plans become clearer.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade